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On the evening of August 7, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July nonfarm payrolls sharply below market expectations. The dollar index and Treasury yields fell together, and precious metals surged. Spot gold rose over 2.3% in a day, hitting $4,371/oz intraday—a high since mid-June; NYMEX December gold futures broke through $4,400, settling at $4,421.60/oz, up 2.84%. Silver was even more volatile: September silver futures jumped 5.45% to $64.965/oz. On a weekly basis, international gold prices gained over 7%, a rare strong performance this year. Behind the simultaneous rise in gold and silver spot prices is a complete logic chain driven by employment data, geopolitical expectations, and capital flows.
Nonfarm Shock Sends Rate-Hike Expectations Lower
The trigger was an 'unexpected' jobs report. The data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July versus expectations of 80,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000, making the employment scale significantly smaller than previously reported and showing the labor market was less robust than official readings. Although the unemployment rate edged down from 4.2% to 4.1%, the slowdown in overall employment momentum is undeniable.
After the data, rate markets quickly repriced. Swap data showed the Fed's September hike probability plunged from 58% to 30%, with the odds of holding steady rising to 70%. Richmond Fed President Barkin said the report fully reflects supply-demand imbalances and weak conditions in some industries, with the labor market in a 'low-hiring, low-layoff' state. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.687%, and the dollar index dropped 0.42% to near 99.54, both making room for gold to rise.
Geopolitical Easing and Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears
Beyond payrolls, falling energy prices added support for precious metals. Expectations grew that the Strait of Hormuz could resume normal navigation. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly said the conflict with Iran 'may soon end.' Iran later clarified that the deal with Oman only establishes a temporary shipping lane and plans to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels, not a full reopening of the strait. The mixed headlines did not halt oil's decline: WTI crude fell nearly 10% on the week to around $78/barrel. Lower oil prices eased imported inflation pressure, further reducing the urgency for Fed hikes and providing macro support for the gold and silver rebound.
Technical Analysis: Holding Key Moving Averages, Bulls Target $4,500
From the chart structure, gold's latest advance shows clear technical repair characteristics. After hitting a record high in January, international gold prices corrected deeply and briefly fell to around $4,019/oz in early August before staging a sustained recovery on multiple tailwinds. Spot gold has now held above the 50-day moving average (around $4,152) and is attacking the 100-day average at $4,390. A decisive break would put the next key resistance at $4,450, then the $4,500 round number. To the downside, the July 6 high turned support at $4,202 is the first level, followed by $4,152, $4,100, and early-August low at $4,019.
The relative strength index (RSI) has turned bullish, indicating short-term momentum favors buyers and the path of least resistance is higher. However, several analysts caution that this rally is mainly technical and short-covering: the prolonged decline had built up heavy short positions, and a break above key resistance triggered concentrated covering. With bearish news already priced in, multiple buyers pushed gold into an independent surge. Short-term indicators are now overbought, and accumulated profit-taking cannot be ignored. The market is likely to shift into a wide range, and sustainability remains unproven.
Asia-Pacific Market: Gold Buying Revives, Consumption Mix Shifts
Gold's strength quickly spread to Asia-Pacific markets. At Shenzhen Shuibei gold wholesale market, 999 fine gold rose to 1,100 yuan/gram, up nearly 50 yuan in just two trading days. Reporter visits found clear divergence in consumer sentiment: some investors wait for pullbacks, fearing buying at highs; others buy gold bars in batches to preserve value; and those buying wedding gold from other provinces continue normal purchases. Jewelry store operators report that August to October is the traditional wedding peak season, with more customers choosing 'three-piece' and 'five-piece' gold sets and preferring heavier pieces, though store sales remain below expectations. Gold recycling is notably weak, while trade-in has become the core business; the volume gap between the two has widened sharply over the past two weeks.
According to the latest industry data from China Gold Association, domestic gold output in the first half was 152.908 tonnes, down 14.62% year on year; consumption was 511.412 tonnes, up slightly by 1.23%. In the high-price environment, investment products such as gold bars and coins became popular, while industrial gold use was constrained by costs. Notably, domestic gold ETF additions were about 28.677 tonnes in the first half, down 66.17% from a year earlier, showing that market funds were cautious at high levels and reluctant to chase prices.
Central Bank Buying Builds Long-Term Floor, Institutions Favor Recovery
Beyond trading, central bank gold buying remains a 'ballast stone' for medium- and long-term precious metals pricing. World Gold Council data show global central banks and official institutions added a net 289 tonnes of gold in Q2, up 62% year on year. Its '2026 Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey' found 45% of central banks plan to increase reserves over the next year. The Bank of Korea also resumed gold allocation after 13 years. The People's Bank of China has increased gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, reaching 2,346.45 tonnes by end-June, firmly ranking fifth globally. The market widely believes elevated geopolitical risk, rising U.S. fiscal pressure, and continued de-dollarization will support higher long-term precious metals price levels.
Nanhua Futures said that with a possible Iran-Oman deal, falling oil prices, cooling inflation data, and waning AI investment enthusiasm, if the Fed pauses hikes in the second half, gold and silver may extend their recovery gains in August-September. Huishang Futures analysts cautioned that $4,300/oz is a dense trading zone and key psychological level; a breakout will attract speculative buying, but short-term overbought signals coexist with profit-taking pressure. Wednesday's U.S. July CPI data (expected to fall to 3.4% year on year from 3.5%) will be the key test for this rebound's strength.
Allocation Advice: Buy in Batches, Control Ratios
Given high volatility, experts advise ordinary investors to participate rationally. For those with essential needs like weddings and gifts, buy in batches during pullbacks, compare brand craftsmanship fees and premiums, and avoid chasing highs. For medium- and long-term allocation funds, low-volatility tools such as gold ETFs and physical gold bars suit a strategy of regular fixed investment or adding on sharp dips. The allocation ratio should stay within 15% of total assets, and only long-term holding can realize its allocation value. Silver has stronger industrial attributes and greater price elasticity, but also sharper swings; investors should watch for potential negatives such as a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, a dollar rebound, and escalated geopolitical conflicts.
