US-Iran Rapprochement Heats Up: Global Assets Enter New Revaluation Phase

Keywords: US-Iran relations, Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices, safe-haven assets, global market revaluation

Introduction

With the US-Iran MoU reached and expectations of Strait of Hormuz reopening significantly increased, the Middle East geopolitical risk that has been disturbing global capital markets is entering a cooling phase. As a core energy transit chokepoint, changes in the Strait affect not only oil supply and shipping order but also quickly transmit through inflation expectations, monetary policy, and risk appetite to major asset classes like stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar. The geopolitical premium accumulated due to conflict is rapidly unwinding, and a new round of asset pricing revaluation has quietly begun.

Geopolitical Risk Cooling, Market Risk Appetite Rebounds

Macro-level, the US-Iran agreement means substantial easing in the Middle East, a key turning point after months of tense standoff. For global markets, this first appears in risk appetite repair. Previously, shipping disruptions and energy supply uncertainty strengthened “safe-haven trade” logic; as conflict margin eased, capital flows back from defensive to risk assets, with equity, commodity, and credit markets likely to see phase rebounds.

More importantly, lower energy prices directly suppress imported inflation. For major economies, energy costs are a key driver of inflation; once oil falls, inflation expectations cool, allowing more policy flexibility. In other words, geopolitical easing is not just the end of a risk event but may signal a macro narrative shift from “inflation and tightening” to “inflation decline and policy loosening.”

Crude Oil: Geopolitical Premium Fades, but Supply-Demand Recovery Takes Time

Oil is the most directly affected asset. With Strait of Hormuz passage expectations improving, market concerns about supply disruption quickly ease, and the geopolitical premium is rapidly cleared. However, it should be noted that lower oil prices do not mean immediate supply recovery to pre-conflict levels. Recovery of disrupted production and replenishment of strategic stocks both take time.

Therefore, crude markets may see large short-term fluctuations due to sentiment repair, but medium-term fundamentals will still return to supply-demand balance. If stocks are low and replenishment demand rises while supply recovery lags, oil prices may still find support. For the chemical industry, lower oil helps reduce cost pressure and improve margins, but whether end demand recovers simultaneously will determine the sustainability of sector repair.

Gold, Treasuries, and Dollar: Safe Haven Retreat, Pricing Logic Shifts

After geopolitical conditions ease, the logic for gold, Treasuries, and the dollar changes. Previously, these assets were supported by safe-haven demand; as conflict eases, traditional safe-haven demand declines, and their short-term strength may moderate.

However, markets will not simply switch from “safe-haven trade” to “risk trade.” If oil continues to fall and inflation expectations cool further, expectations of Fed policy easing could strengthen, which supports gold and Treasuries. Gold may benefit short-term from falling real rates, and medium-term from de-dollarization and global reserve diversification trends, offering strong allocation value. Treasury yields may fall phase-wise, but US fiscal pressure still limits long-term decline.

For the dollar index, short-term safe-haven demand reduction may weigh on it, but medium-term US economic resilience will maintain range-bound trading. Long term, as global settlement systems diversify, structural pressure on the dollar accumulates, but without a sharp US recession, the dollar is unlikely to see a unilateral sharp decline.

Shipping and Equity Markets: Differentiation Breeds New Opportunities

Shipping market reactions deserve attention. If the Strait gradually normalizes, shipping insurance, fuel costs, and transport risks will decline, container lines’ detour pressure eases, Asia-Europe route efficiency improves, and related freight rates may enter a downward channel. Meanwhile, tanker and LNG transport demand may strengthen phase-wise under replenishment and export recovery, leading to clear divergence within the shipping sector.

Equity markets: risk appetite repair may drive overall rebound, but the true medium-term trend will still return to fundamentals. Lower energy costs, falling inflation expectations, and marginal improvement in financing conditions all benefit valuation repair for growth sectors like tech, advanced manufacturing, and new energy. The future market theme may no longer revolve purely around geopolitical swings but return to long-term logic of economic structure upgrades, energy transition, and global supply chain restructuring.

Conclusion

Overall, the US-Iran MoU marks a phase of easing in Middle East geopolitical risk. In the short term, global markets will undergo rapid adjustment around risk appetite repair, crude premium unwinding, and inflation expectation cooling; medium-term, supply recovery, stockpiling, and policy expectation changes need observation; long-term, asset prices will still return to the three main themes of supply-demand structure, economic fundamentals, and global order reconstruction. For investors, this is both a reallocation window after the risk event and a signal that markets are entering a new phase from “event-driven” to “fundamental-driven.”