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On July 28, 2026, international gold prices continued their strong upward trend, with London spot gold breaking through the key resistance level of $2,900 per ounce, setting a new record since early 2024. Meanwhile, the latest quarterly report from the World Gold Council shows that as of the end of the second quarter of 2026, total global central bank gold reserves rose to 38,200 metric tons, up 4.7% year-over-year, marking an all-time high. Gold's status as a strategic reserve asset has been further consolidated, with the market shifting from short-term safe-haven to long-term allocation logic.
Central Bank Reserve Building Surge: Accelerated De-dollarization
According to the World Gold Council, global central banks' net gold purchases reached 632 metric tons in the first half of 2026, with 312 tons purchased in Q2 alone, a year-over-year increase of 18%. The main buyers remained emerging market central banks — China, Poland, India, Turkey, and Kazakhstan ranked in the top five. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 18th consecutive month, raising reserves to 2,280 metric tons; the National Bank of Poland made a one-time purchase of 43 tons in June, pushing its total reserves above 400 tons.
Analysts point out that the underlying driver of central bank reserve accumulation is the accelerating global de-dollarization trend. As U.S. federal debt exceeds $40 trillion and geopolitical tensions persist, many central banks are actively adjusting their foreign exchange reserve structures to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets. Lindsey Rositter, macro strategist at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), said: "Gold is no longer just a tool for hedging inflation, but has become a core option for central banks to achieve reserve diversification and reduce systemic risk. We expect central bank gold purchases to exceed 1,200 tons for the first time in full-year 2026."
Gold Price Trends: Structurally Strong, $2,900 Becomes New Support
Gold prices started rising from $2,450 at the end of 2025, accumulating over 18% gains since the start of 2026. The core drivers of the price increase come from three factors: first, sustained central bank gold buying forming solid bottom demand; second, weak U.S. economic data fueling market expectations of rate cuts, with real interest rates declining; third, persistently elevated geopolitical risk premiums in regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
Technically, gold has broken through the all-time high of $2,780 set in 2025 and completed a retest confirmation near $2,900. Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, raised its three-month gold price forecast to $3,050, stating that "driven by both central bank purchases and retail investment, gold is in the third phase of a long-term bull market." However, UBS warned of short-term correction risks, pointing out that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures have reached extreme levels and could trigger profit-taking. Nonetheless, most institutions agree that below $2,850 will become a strong support zone.
Asian Demand: Dominates Global Gold Retail and ETF Inflows
Gold demand in Asia, especially in China and India, has been strong. Physical delivery volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange in the first half of 2026 rose 21% year-over-year, with Chinese investors pouring approximately 380 billion yuan into gold ETFs. In India, despite a 12% gold import duty, strong wedding and festival demand drove jewelry consumption up 9% year-over-year in Q2. Japanese retail investors accelerated gold purchases amid yen depreciation, with gold futures open interest on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) hitting a record high.
Alan Wu, Head of Alternative Investments for Asia Pacific at international asset manager BlackRock, said: "Asian investors are shifting from traditional jewelry consumption to financial allocation, with demand for gold ETFs and structured products growing rapidly. This structural change will enhance the liquidity and pricing efficiency of the gold market."
Industry Observation: Tightening Supply Chain and Surging Miner Profits
On the supply side, global gold mine production slowed growth in 2026. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that first-half output increased only 1.2% year-over-year, mainly constrained by stricter environmental permit approvals, declining ore grades, and rising labor costs. Meanwhile, global gold recycling volume fell 5% year-over-year, as high gold prices prompted holders to hoard. The widening supply-demand gap further supports gold prices.
Mining companies are direct beneficiaries of this gold price rally. Newmont Mining's Q2 net profit surged 84% year-over-year, with free cash flow reaching $1.8 billion, and it announced a 25% increase in its annual dividend. Barrick Gold announced it would accelerate the development of two new mines in Africa and Latin America, expected to add 40 metric tons of annual production. Industry M&A activity is also active, with Australia's Evolution Mining acquiring Canada's Mineros Gold for C$2.4 billion.
Future Outlook: Strategic Allocation Value Highlighted
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the policy direction of global central banks remains a key variable. The Federal Reserve may start cutting rates in September, while the eurozone has already eased, creating a favorable environment for gold amid declining real interest rates. Geopolitically, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, Red Sea shipping security, and uncertainty from the U.S. presidential election keep safe-haven demand elevated. Wang Lei, Head of China Market Research at the World Gold Council, pointed out: "Gold's 'insurance' function in asset portfolios is being repriced. We recommend investors increase gold allocation from the traditional 5% to 8-10%."
In summary, the record high in global central bank gold reserves marks gold's elevation from a mere safe-haven asset to a strategic reserve asset. Driven by the multiple resonances of de-dollarization, Asia's rise, and monetary policy easing, the bull market foundation for gold is solid. $2,900 may become the market's new value center, and a further breakthrough above $3,000 may only be a matter of time.
